Can we use past scores to predict the future of CRS?

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At first glance, it may seem a relatively simple task to predict future CRS scores based on previous cut-offs. As draws, increase and time elapses, the CRS cut-offs continues to drop. However, the situation is more complex in reality.

The problem with using past CRS scores to predict future ones is the lack of a clear pattern in how CRS cut-offs change. The graph below maps CRS cut-offs to their respective draws. Though we can observe a negative correlation, we cannot accurately map future CRS scores here, as there is not a consistent drop in cut-offs, from draw to draw.

EE CRS Trends 2022 2048x1043

The future of CRS

While we cannot be exactly sure what the coming CRS cut-offs will be, there is one important policy change coming in 2023 that will make have major impact to the CRS’s impact effect on immigration: Bill C-19.

Passed in June of 2022, this bill allows the immigration minister the ability to create groups (based on policy aims) within the Express Entry pool and issue ITAs to the candidates within that group.

IRCC has already expressed its intent to pursue this measure in 2023, in order to help directly address economic needs by targeting specific in-demand professions occupations

Under Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan, the country hopes to welcome 203,220 new immigrants under the Express Entry-managed programs, between 2023 and 2025.